Case studies
Respiratory virus forecasting for ECDC
Together with the ISI Foundation in Turin, Italy, Safinea is responsible for curating RespiCast and RespiCompass, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control’s respiratory forecasting hubs. We also contribute projections of respiratory disease, including acute respiratory infections and RSV.
In RespiCast, forecasts are submitted before the period they describe and scored afterwards against what happened: a challenging test for any modelling group: prospective, public and comparative.
Through RespiCompass, we provide scenario-based projections of respiratory disease to the specifications provided by policy-makers.
Forest risk modelling
Safinea has developed a forest modelling platform, synthesising weather, satellite, survey and drone-based data streams into a tree-level picture of what is standing, where, and in what condition. It is configured to study sites spanning a range of European forest types.
We apply our expertise in scenario modelling to simulate the systemic impact of drought, storm and bark beetle, with a full representation of uncertainty.
Forest owners, managers, insurers and investors can evaluate management options or test an exposure, seeing the consequences over time in two currencies that matter: timber yield and carbon value.
Outbreak risk for a UN immunisation programme
Safinea has developed a decision-support model for a UN agency, illustrating how social clustering compounds measles risk. We quantify the probability that an outbreak exceeds a given size, and how large it is likely to be if it happens.
Our online tool allows operational users all over the world to explore the potential impact and cost-effectiveness of targeted vaccination strategies in their own setting, optimising health outcomes even under resource constraints.
Fifty years of immunisation impact, for WHO
Safinea was a co-ordinating partner in the EPI@50 study, estimating the impact of five decades of immunisation.
We led on spatial and temporal imputation of vaccination impact across diverse data and modelling output.
The work was carried out under contract to the World Health Organisation and its reporting in The Lancet has become a fundamental citation on the value of vaccines.